Wednesday, January 04, 2012

The REAL 2012 Election Question

With the Iowa caucuses under the 2012 campaign belt, the predictions roll on to New Hampshire. The scuttle is beginning to turn to possible running mates for vice-president.

Honestly, the question of who will be president has become almost mute.  Outside of Iowa and a handful of other states, it really will be those who raise the most money. And the money will go to those the establishment finds least threatening while still having a shot at being elected.

I think the real question that is tough to predict is who will be dumb enough to risk being the vice-presidential candidate.

There was once a thought that being vice president was the path to the White House. And certainly it has often been the path to a party’s nomination.  But let’s face it. If you become the VP of the US, you will become the laughing stock. Remember Gerald Ford as clumsy? The elder Bush as the “wimp”?  Dan Quayle as stupid?  Al Gore as a log?  Dick Cheney as evil?  Joe Biden as . . .  Joe Biden?

Consider VPs who have become president.  Richard Nixon is arguably the last VP to successfully become President. He had a strong re-election, and had he not crashed and burned with Watergate, would likely have been seen positively by history.  Johnson and Ford both became President under tragic circumstances, and both were one term Presidents. 

Rockafeller was left behind when Regan and Bush took the nomination.  Mondale was a non-contender in the electoral college.  Bush the elder was a one term president. Quayle left politics (a sign he was actually very smart).  Al Gore couldn’t capitalize on the good times of the 90s.  Dick Cheney pledged to never run for the nomination, and given the characterization of him as evil incarnate, it is a good thing he didn’t try.  I doubt Biden could get nominated for president let alone elected.

But wait. Maybe there is a VP strategy that would offer a path to the Presidency. 

What if you are the VP nominee for the party out of power, running against an incumbent ticket?  Odds are greater than not that the incumbent ticket will be re-elected. Especially if the economy is doing well.  Knowing that, one might be able to raise your national profile, avoid actually being the VP (and becoming a late night joke), all the while positioning yourself for a future presidential run.

Great idea!  Except not really.

Start listing Presidents who successfully used this strategy.  Jack Kemp?  Geraldine Ferraro?  John Edwards?  Sarah Palin?

So the real question for the election of 2012 is this:  What rising political star will sacrifice their future aspirations to be the Republican vice-presidential nominee?

Monday, November 28, 2011

Spam for Breakfast

Woke up to a flood of comment spam.  So I’ve closed all commenting for the time being.  It’s time to revamp this site anyway.